Why Cardiometabolic & PREVENT™ Risk Translator?
Beyond Traditional Framingham & PCE
Operationalizes the 2023/2024 AHA PREVENT™ (Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs) equations, eliminating race-based adjustments and integrating cardiorenal-metabolic (CKM) health markers—including eGFR and UACR—for total CVD and heart failure forecasting.
Trial-Grounded “What-If” Simulation
Bypasses counterfactual observational substitution bias by compounding landmark RCT-derived relative risk reductions (CTTC, SPRINT/BPLTTC, DAPA-CKD, SELECT) to project actionable absolute risk reductions and vascular age rejuvenation.
Multi-Phenotype Risk Stratification
Simultaneously delivers 10-year and 30-year risk trajectories across total cardiovascular disease, atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD), and heart failure (HF), translating complex biostatistical models into clear shared decision-making visual metrics.
Clinical Workflow: 3-Stage Architecture
Stage 1: Cardiorenal & Biomarker Intake
- Demographics & Standard Metrics: Age (30–79), biological sex, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL-C, and current smoking status.
- CKM Enhancers: Fasting blood glucose/HbA1c, estimated GFR (CKD-EPI), urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR), and statin or antihypertensive treatment status.
- Data Validation: Automated real-time plausibility boundary checks aligned with AHA PREVENT™ cohort distributions.
Stage 2: PREVENT™ Multi-Phenotype Engine
- 10-Year Projections: Calculates individualized baseline probabilities for Total CVD, ASCVD, and Heart Failure.
- 30-Year Trajectory: Estimates long-term lifetime cardiorenal risk burden for younger adults (ages 30–59).
- Vascular PREVENT-Age: Converts multi-variable risk scores into a biological heart/vascular age equivalent for intuitive patient communication.
Stage 3: Evidence-Based Therapeutic Simulation
- Lipid Lowering: Evaluates guideline-directed statin/combination therapy applying ~25% RRR (CTTC meta-analyses).
- Intensive BP Control: Models SBP optimization to targets ≤120–125 mmHg applying ~25% RRR (SPRINT / BPLTTC).
- CKM Pharmacotherapy: Simulates SGLT2i / GLP-1 RA therapy applying ~20% RRR across cardiorenal outcomes (SELECT, DAPA-CKD, STEP-HFpEF).
- Multiplicative Compounding: Calculates aggregate Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) and Number Needed to Treat (NNT) via a non-linear, multi-target compounding model ($1 – \prod (1 – \text{RRR}_i)$).
How to Use the Cardiometabolic & PREVENT™ Risk Translator in Practice
- Collect & Input Clinical Markers: Enter the patient’s bedside and laboratory values, including blood pressure, lipid panel, eGFR, and glycemic status into the Step 1 intake form.
- Review Baseline Multi-Phenotype Risk: Evaluate the calculated 10-year Total CVD, ASCVD, and Heart Failure risks, noting how renal and metabolic variables influence the individual sub-phenotypes.
- Simulate Guideline Interventions: Toggle trial-validated therapies in the “What-If” simulator—such as high-intensity statins, intensive BP control, SGLT2 inhibitors/GLP-1 RAs, or smoking cessation.
- Analyze Compounded Benefits: Review the projected absolute risk reductions (ARR), post-treatment risk trajectory, and vascular PREVENT-Age reduction.
- Facilitate Shared Decision-Making: Use the visualized risk-benefit synthesis to frame discussions around pharmacotherapy initiation, lifestyle targets, and personalized prevention priorities.
